Four years ago, on the Saturday before the presidential election, I made a terrible mistake. I wrote a post on this blog speculating about what would happen to the Republican party in the wake of the all-but-certain defeat of Donald Trump in the 2016 election.
The bulk of the post focused on drawing a historical analogy to the fate of the Federalists after the Hartford Convention. The analogy was interesting, and perhaps not without value, but it was a house built upon sand. As we know, the axiomatic assumption underlying that post—the Republican party is betting all on this character, and they are about to lose all—was not at all true in 2016.
Lesson learned.
I do not dare to make predictions about what will happen on or after this Tuesday. I have my hopes, but I will keep most of those to myself. Above all, I do hope that calm and composure and carefulness will prevail. I mean, it’s 2020, so that’s a perfectly reasonable thing to hope for, right? (/sarcasm)
Library of Congress
Anyhow, I have no predictions for Tuesday, but I do have a question. I’m working on an essay, and the question I’m thinking about in relation to my essay is this: What would have happened if the Mugwumps had won? What would have happened to the Democratic Party, and what would have happened to the Republican party? Where would Teddy Roosevelt have ended up? If the Mugwumps had won, would they have been able to claim the crown and mantle of the Republican Party, or would they have become a culturally conservative wing of the Democratic Party?
Of course, that’s not actually the question my essay will address.
The question my essay will address is a question about our present and our future, but I’ll put it in the subjunctive this time, lest I even approach the precipice of foolish predictions: What would happen if the Mugwumps were to win this time?
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